Sunday, March 1, 2009

Significant Downward Reduction In 4Q GDP

4Q preliminary Gross Domestic Product, the broadest measure of economic output, was revised from the initial report of a 3.8% annualized rate of decline to a 6.2% drop, decreasing much more than the forecast of a 5.4% decline. Personal consumption was revised from -3.5% to -4.3%, also much worse than the expectation of -3.7%. The core PCE Index, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.8%, above the estimate of 0.6%.

The Chicago Purchasing Manager survey, which measures manufacturing in the Midwest, unexpectedly improved, rising from 33.3 in January to 34.2 in January, better than the estimate of 33.0
. Prices paid fell from 39.8 to 37.8 as commodity and oil prices continue to reflect a lack of price pressures.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 119 points (1.7%) to close at 7,063, the S&P 500 Index fell 18 points (2.4%) to 735, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 13 points (1.0%) to 1,378. Crude oil fell $0.80 to $44.44 per barrel and gold decreased $4.11 to $942.10 per ounce. For the week, the DJIA fell 4.1%, the S&P 500 Index lost 4.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 4.4%.

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